New Survey Shows Pricing Gap in Durable CDR

Insights from the CDR.fyi/OPIS Pricing Survey

Pricing data is the most sought-after information in durable carbon dioxide removal (CDR). To address this market need, CDR.fyi and OPIS, a Dow Jones Company, partnered to conduct the durable CDR pricing survey. The survey, which targeted purchasers and suppliers of durable CDR, aimed to increase transparency in pricing and support the industry’s growth by gathering data on acceptable price ranges, optimal price points, and market dynamics.

Ninety-seven suppliers and twenty-five purchasers answered questions about various CDR project types for 2025 and 2030 delivery. Suppliers reported four price thresholds (Below Cost, Breakeven, Reasonable Profit, High Profit but Risky), and purchasers identified their own four price categories (Too Cheap, Cheap/Good Value, Expensive/High Side, Too Expensive). Respondents also noted which methods they had already traded and which ones they planned to transact in the future, allowing the survey to capture both current pricing experience and anticipated price ranges.

The biggest takeaway from the survey is a significant gap between what purchasers are willing to pay and what suppliers need to achieve profitability. This gap is biggest for 2025 but remains substantial for 2030.

For example, biochar providers require $187 per metric tonne in 2025 and $180/mt in 2030 to achieve a reasonable profit. However, buyers see prices of $155/mt in 2025 and $130/mt in 2030 as “Expensive.” For Enhanced Weathering, suppliers seek a price of $349/mt in 2025 and $328/mt in 2030 to be profitable, but buyers see $271/mt in 2025 and $238/mt in 2030 as expensive. Across most CDR methods, the prices purchasers view as expensive are consistently below the profitable price points for suppliers.

Despite these gaps, many suppliers’ Breakeven prices are below what buyers label as Expensive/High side. This indicates that there is a possibility of finding prices that work for both buyers and suppliers.

Purchasers expect prices to drop by 2030 for nearly every method. Direct Air Carbon Capture and Storage (DACCS) shows the biggest potential decline, with some buyers believing costs could fall by about 45% from current levels. Suppliers also project lower prices by 2030, especially for DACCS and other high-tech methods.

The average values also hide disparate answers. For example, if we look at the Breakeven cost of Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) stated by suppliers in 2030, the average is $212/mt. But the lowest individual answer is $80/mt and the highest is $370/mt. For DACCS, the average Breakeven cost in 2030 is $341/mt. But one supplier answered above $600/mt and several below $300/mt. Another example is Biochar, with an average Breakeven in 2025 of $143/mt. The lowest answer was $50/mt, and the highest was $600/mt, and most Biochar respondents were in the $100/mt to $200/mt range.One interesting thread: respondents who have already purchased or sold credits, the “veterans,” often provided different numbers from prospective market entrants who haven’t yet closed a deal. In some categories (like BECCS or DACCS), experienced suppliers reported lower Breakeven prices than newcomers, possibly reflecting operational efficiencies or a sharper sense of real costs. However, for Biochar, we see the opposite, with veterans stating a much higher Breakeven price for 2025 than those who haven’t sold any biochar credits, indicating that production costs are higher than new entrants anticipate.

On the buyer side, veterans generally anticipated higher price ranges than rookies, except for DACCS, where new buyers expected to pay more. These nuances reflect not only distinctions across durable CDR methods but also that real-world experience influences people’s willingness to accept or propose certain prices.

CDR.fyi’s Assessment

The survey points to durable CDR being higher-priced than purchasers expect. Suppliers of all kinds stating Breakeven prices of $140-$340/mt and Reasonable Profit at $180-$430/mt for 2030 will be a bit of a reality check for many buyers. Price development is highly heterogeneous: Suppliers in some methods will struggle to further decrease their prices post-2030.

Today’s significant CDR buyers are still what we would classify as “innovators” with the market yet to reach the “early-adopter” stage. We expect regular market dynamics to govern the purchase behaviour of the next group of buyers. Even among the innovators, very few have bought the highest-priced tonnes. Based on CDR.fyi market data, only 32 purchasers have paid over $500/mt, and 98.5% of the purchase volume above $1,000/mt are from Frontier Buyers and the Milkywire Climate Transformation Fund buyers (1). These entities deploy their funds with catalytic impact on scaling carbon removal among their purchasing decision considerations.

In most cases, purchasers are expected to choose the lowest-cost options that allow them to credibly claim they are reaching their climate targets (2). This behaviour would favour durable biomass-based methods in the short to medium term. High-cost CDR suppliers, on the other hand, will need to find a way to reduce their costs and pricing significantly to secure large-scale offtake agreements and potentially their survival. Given purchaser price expectations, suppliers cannot rely on economies of scale alone to reduce costs, nor can they rely on purchasers to fund their trajectory along the scaling curve. Instead, cost reductions will mainly depend on innovation-driven R&D, iteration through modular approaches, and low capital expenditure strategies.

The Google-Holocene deal is an example of a supplier forward-selling their technological learning and scaling curve at a price that is palatable for the purchaser. Without this kind of pricing strategy, deployment risk remains limited to equity-financed projects or smaller pre-purchases from altruistic buyers. This will be particularly challenging for suppliers of high, fixed-cost methods such as DACCS, leading to the likelihood of significant consolidation in the next few years.

A much deeper dive into the results including data tables and method-specific breakdowns is available in the report “Bridging the Gap: Durable CDR Market Pricing Survey.” The report also includes CDR.fyi’s deeper assessment of the different factors that may affect prices across the major durable CDR methods tracked as well as OPIS’s reporting on the survey results. Given the importance of pricing transparency for scaling the durable CDR market, CDR.fyi and OPIS are making the white paper freely and publicly available

For more information, email us at team@cdr.fyi.